Bracketology – 1/19

Sunday seed list for games through Saturday, 1/18. Auto-bids (in italics) are now based on current conference standings, with the exception of the Ivy league with only 1-2 games played for those teams. Numbers in parentheses are the movement since last week’s posting.

1 seeds
Kansas (–)
Baylor (–)
San Diego State (+1)
Gonzaga (+1)
2 seeds
West Virginia (–)
Duke (-1)
Seton Hall (+1)
Florida State (+1)
3 seeds
Louisville (+1)
Michigan State (–)
Dayton (+1)
Butler (-2)
4 seeds
Oregon (-1)
Maryland (–)
Villanova (–)
Auburn (-2)
5 seeds
Iowa (+1)
Kentucky (–)
Houston (+4)
Arizona (+1)
6 seeds
Colorado (+1)
LSU (+1)
Wisconsin (–)
Florida (+4)
7 seeds
Marquette (+3)
Penn State (–)
Ohio State (-2)
Arkansas (-1)
8 seeds
Wichita State (-3)
Rutgers (+1)
Michigan (-3)
Memphis (+1)
9 seeds
Creighton (-2)
USC (+2)
Indiana (-1)
Stanford (-1)
10 seeds
Saint Mary’s (-1)
Texas Tech (+1)
Northern Iowa (+2)
Oklahoma (–)
11 seeds
Illinois (-3)
BYU (-3)
Purdue (+1)
East Tennessee State (+1)
12 seeds
NC State (NEW)/Minnesota (NEW)
Liberty (-2)
Virginia Tech (-1)/Virginia (NEW)
Yale (–)
13 seeds
Akron (–)
New Mexico State (+1)
Stephen F. Austin (+1)
North Texas (NEW)
14 seeds
Colgate (–)
Wright State (-1)
Stony Brook (NEW)
Radford (+1)
15 seeds
UC Irvine (+1)
William & Mary (–)
Little Rock (NEW)
St. Francis PA (+1)
16 seeds
South Dakota State (NEW)
Murray State (NEW)
Montana (NEW)/Prairie View A&M (–)
Monmouth (NEW)/Norfolk State (NEW)

Dropped Out:
Georgetown (was 11)
Xavier (was 11)
VCU (was 12)
Louisiana Tech (was 13)
Vermont (was 13)
Georgia State (was 14)
Belmont (was 15)
Northern Colorado (was 15)
North Dakota State (was 16)
Rider (was 16)
Bethune Cookman (was 16)

Last 4 Byes
Oklahoma
Illinois
BYU
Purdue
Last 4 In
NC State
Minnesota
Virginia Tech
Virginia
First 4 Out
VCU
Georgetown
Alabama
Richmond
Next 4 Out
DePaul
Texas
Mississippi State
Tennessee
Waiting List
Rhode Island
Xavier
Syracuse
Washington
UNC Greensboro
Cincinnati
Duquesne

Multi-Bid Conferences
AAC: 3 teams
ACC: 6 teams
Big 10: 12 teams
Big 12: 5 teams
Big East: 5 teams
Pac 12: 5 teams
SEC: 5 teams
WCC: 3 teams

Top 25 – Week 11

  1. Baylor (+2) – Road wins at Texas Tech AND Kansas, the toughest road environment in the country? Yeah, that’s a hell of a week. I’ve been higher than most on Baylor all season, and I’m sure there will be some who won’t rank them #1, but in my eyes, this is the clear best team in the country right now.
  2. Gonzaga (-1) – After starting WCC play with a couple closer than expected victories, the Bulldogs went on the road and absolutely throttled San Diego and Loyola Marymount, winning by 44 and 25, respectively. Gonzaga returns home this week for a pair of tougher matchups, with a home game against a Santa Clara team coming off a road upset of Saint Mary’s followed by a weekend battle against BYU.
  3. Duke (+1) – Duke was challenged on Wednesday night by a pesky Georgia Tech team, but Tre Jones led the way with a strong performance highlighted by some vicious Cassius Stanley throwdowns. The Blue Devils returned home and beat down on Wake Forest over the weekend. They’ll face their first top 25-level competition in a month and a half when Louisville comes into Cameron this weekend, which should serve as a good barometer for both programs.
  4. Auburn (+1) – Auburn remained undefeated this past week with two home games against Vanderbilt and Georgia. While the game against Vandy was closer than expected, the Commodores that were crushed by Texas A&M on Saturday certainly aren’t the same team without the SEC’s leading scorer Aaron Nesmith. Regardless, Auburn followed up that win by pounding Georgia by 22 and containing freshman sensation Anthony Edwards. Auburn’s greatest strength is its balance, as 4 different players have led the team in scoring the last 4 games.
  5. Kansas (-3) – The Jayhawks began the week in strong fashion, dominating Iowa State in Hilton, but were completely stunned by Baylor over the weekend as they suffered their first home loss of the season. What was most shocking was how plainly Baylor dominated the game – the Jayhawks hung with them and were down just 27-24 with two and a half minutes left in the first before Baylor finished the half on a 10-0 run. From there on, the closest Kansas could get within was 5 points, and they didn’t get within single digits the final 9 minutes of the game.
  6. Butler (–) – Butler took care of business this week once again, going on the road and taking down Providence to hand the Friars their first loss in Big East play. Circle Wednesday night on your calendars, as Butler welcomes Seton Hall, the only other undefeated Big East team, to Hinkle Fieldhouse.
  7. San Diego State (–) – This week’s summary for the Aztecs will probably be able to be copy and pasted several more times this season. San Diego State did what they needed to do this past week, beating Wyoming on the road and Boise State at home and refused to fall into a trap game. This week presents tougher challenges in Fresno State on the road and with Nevada coming to town, but those are both games the Aztecs *should* win.
  8. Oregon (+1) – The Ducks had a big week, taking down both schools from Arizona in the span of three days, including a thrilling 1 point OT win against Arizona. This week, the Ducks have to go on the road but face winnable games against a bad Washington State team and a Washington program in freefall and without star PG Quade Green due to academic ineligibility.
  9. Dayton (+2) – The Flyers won’t have many opportunities to pick up statement wins to catapult themselves up the rankings, so in order to climb, they, like San Diego State, have to continue to win and wait for carnage around them. Dayton did just that this weekend, blasting UMass by 28 points in their lone affair. This week, however, presents multiple big opportunities – VCU comes to town on Tuesday night, and Dayton travels to a tough Saint Louis squad on Friday night. Hopefully star F Obi Toppin is available for both after spraining his ankle on Saturday.
  10. Florida State (+3) – The Noles did what they needed to in Wake Forest Wednesday night, beating the Demon Deacons by 10 to improve to 4-1 in ACC play, good for 2nd place behind Duke. Prior to traveling to Miami next weekend, the Seminoles will take on a Virginia team in freefall and in desperate need of a win to right the ship. While it’s a down year in the ACC for sure, neither of these games will be gimmes for Leonard Hamilton and company.
  11. West Virginia (+4) – After one lone down year that featured a CBI appearance, the Mountaineers are unequivocally back and while it’s not the “Press Virginia” that Jevon Carter led, this team still plays suffocating defense. They went into Stillwater this past week and choked Oklahoma State to just 41 points, and held Texas Tech to just 54 in a win over the weekend. UVA still technically has the best defense according to KenPom, but West Virginia is literally just 0.1 points behind them in AdjD efficiency.
  12. Wichita State (+4) – Wichita State is another team that we can declare as “Back” after a one year hiatus. Without shame, I’d like to state that I’ve been a believer in the Shockers returning to the national picture since before the season, when I pegged them as a 10 seed, but I didn’t see anything like this coming. Wichita State took down a ranked Memphis team on Thursday night, before outlasting UConn in a wild double OT game of refball basketball.
  13. Louisville (+1) – Louisville bounced back from 2 straight losses and made it through unscathed this week after a home game against Miami and a wild road game against Notre Dame that featured one of the most baffling final possessions I’ve ever seen. This week is a big one for the Cardinals, with a road matchup in Cameron Indoor awaiting on Saturday that follows a road game at Pitt on Tuesday that should not be overlooked at all.
  14. Michigan State (-6) – I know the cool thing to do in the Big 10 this year is lose on the road, but uh, Michigan State? That’s not what we meant…. The Spartans got absolutely hammered on Sunday by a Purdue team that refuses to die and continues to defy the haters of advanced analytics. While it was in Mackey against a Top 10 defense, you have to do better than shoot 35% from the field with 18 turnovers if you want to be a top 10 team.
  15. Maryland (-3) – What a hell of a week for the Terps. First, they take down a reeling but still wildly-talented-and-ranked-in-the-KenPom-Top-10 Ohio State team on Tuesday night, then they get crushed on the road by the Hawkeyes on Friday night. It was confoundingly polarizing, which fits with the theme of college hoops this year, and which also means we should expect Maryland to win at Wisconsin on Tuesday but lose at home to Purdue next weekend because why not?
  16. Villanova (+4) – The Wildcats bounced back from the loss against Marquette by somehow managing to beat Creighton on the road Tuesday night, a game in which the Cats jumped out to a blistering 1-0 lead and then didn’t have the lead again until less than 3 minutes remained in the game.
  17. Kentucky (+2) – The Wildcats of Kentucky also stood pat this week with a 2-0 record and no losses to speak of, unlike many other top 25 teams. They managed to come out of Georgia with a 9 point win, which does not accurately represent how tight that game was, and followed that up with another 9 point win at home against Alabama, which was also closer than the final score indicates, though Kentucky maintained control throughout. Two road games await this week with a big one over the weekend at Arkansas.
  18. Seton Hall (NEW) – I think a lot of people, myself included, wrote off the Pirates after a 6-4 start against a brutal schedule that was punctuated with a blowout loss to Rutgers. Since then, though, the Pirates have weathered the storm of temporarily loses Myles Powell and have gone without Sandro Mamukelashvili and have ripped off a 6 game winning streak. This past week saw them record strong wins at Xavier and at home over Marquette. The preseason Big East favorite has reclaimed the top spot in the standings for now.
  19. Colorado (NEW) – The Buffaloes rebounded from the surprising home collapse against Oregon State last week to trounce Utah by 39 earlier this afternoon in their lone game this week. This one wasn’t even close, with Colorado racing out to a 16-2 lead before 5 minutes had even passed by.
  20. Memphis (-2) – The Tigers dropped their first AAC game this week, as they couldn’t get past Wichita State on the road, but bounced back to survive another admirable but insufficient USF upset bid. Precious Achiuwa has asserted himself as “The Guy” on this team.
  21. Arkansas (+4) – This is the point where this ballot became impossibly difficult to fill out. Do I think Arkansas is the 22nd best team in the country? Well, no, but is there anyone else with a more compelling argument for this spot? Also, no. The Razorbacks fell in a thrilling road loss to LSU this week by just 2, and rebounded to grab a road win at Ole Miss over the weekend. After a game against a hobbled Vanderbilt squad, the Razorbacks welcome Kentucky into town, which will be a great test to see where this team stands.
  22. Indiana (NEW) – I had to give a nod to Indiana this week and recognize that while it hasn’t been pretty, they are 13-3 with a winning record in the brutal 2019-2020 edition of the Big 10. They came oh-so-close to losing at home to a horrible Northwestern squad, but pulled it out and bounced back with a big win over Ohio State this weekend.
  23. LSU (NEW) – To be honest, LSU was on my radar last week but there were many more teams I had in front of them that I would’ve expected to see in the top 25 before the Tigers. I subconsciously wrote them off when they dropped to 7-4 following a blowout home loss to East Tennessee State and a loss to USC, but since then, they’ve beaten Liberty, Tennessee in Knoxville, Arkansas, and Mississippi State on a buzzer beating prayer. Wins are wins, and most of the other teams in the back of the top 25 and beyond did a lot less winning than LSU this past week.
  24. Creighton (NEW) – This is another one where I guess I just don’t know who to put here. So many teams in this area of the rankings suffered losses that it becomes a matter of who had the least bad of the losses. I had Creighton at 27 this past week, and despite the collapse at home that led to the loss to Villanova, I came away impressed by their 12 point road win at Xavier.
  25. Ohio State (-15) – I so, so, so badly wanted to unrank Ohio State this week (they have literally not won since before Christmas!!!) but I just couldn’t convince myself that any of the next 5 teams deserve it more than they do. The Buckeyes have now dropped to 1-4 in Big 10 play, but the good news is that they are still 8th in KenPom’s AdjEM rating, while coming in at just 320th in luck. Aside from the home loss to Maryland, the other 3 losses in this losing streak have all come to teams I have in the top 25, too.

Dropped Out:
Penn State (17) – I almost left the Nittany Lions in this week at 25, but couldn’t justify putting them in over Ohio State after that 32 point loss earlier in the season. Neither loss was that bad for Penn State this past week, as Rutgers legitimately may be a tournament team and the RAC is a hellscape when they’re good, and Wisconsin is just a weird ass team this year.
Virginia (21) – I’ve been trying so hard to believe in Virginia this year, and the defense still remains elite at #1 in KenPom’s AdjD. But after losses to Boston College and an OT loss at home to a weak Syracuse team, I’m giving up on Virginia. They are not only a top 25 team, but they may not even be a tournament team at this point.
Texas Tech (22) – I’m starting to lose faith in Texas Tech this year, too. I love what Chris Beard is doing down there, but this team hasn’t gelled quite like last year’s version did. Maybe I’m wrong and it will still happen later on, but the defense, while still phenomenal, is only 11th best and not at last year’s level, and the offense can be brutal to watch at times. The Red Raiders managed only 52 and 54 points in their two losses this past week.
Arizona (23) – I was prepared to keep Arizona in the top 25 and even considering them moving up if they Sunday night at Oregon State – a 1-1 week with a 1 point OT loss on the road to a top 10 week ain’t too bad at all. But, alas, they went winless on their Oregon excursion, and I’ve since dropped them out of the top 25. I do think the pieces are there for Arizona to get back in the top 25 and stay there, but they need to find a way to win close games against good teams – 4 of their 5 losses have been to Power 6 schools by 5 or less.
Michigan (24) – It looks like the Atlantis honeymoon with Juwan Howard is officially over in Ann Arbor – the Wolverines continue to slump hard after needing double OT to pull out a win against Purdue and falling to Minnesota on the road. That’s certainly not an indictment on Howard at all, either, as he has done very well. But without Isaiah Livers, I just don’t see this as a top 25 team for the time being.

Next 5: Michigan, Penn State, Arizona, Texas Tech, Rutgers

Bracketology: 1/12

Here’s how I would set the Field of 68 based on games through Saturday, 1/11. Auto-bids noted in italics, and they are based on resume at this point. Once more conference games are played I will pivot towards awarding auto-bids to the team leading the conference standings at that point in time. Numbers in parentheses indicate increase/decrease from last week.

Midwest Region (Indianapolis)

St. Louis, MO
1 Butler (#3 overall) (–)
16 North Dakota State (–)
8 Indiana (+2)
9 Memphis (-1)

Greensboro, NC
5 Michigan (-1)
12 East Tennessee State (-1)
4 Dayton (–)
13 Akron (–)

Cleveland, OH
6 Arizona (-1)
11 Virginia Tech (NEW)
3 Michigan State (–)
14 Stephen F. Austin (-1)

Spokane, WA
7 LSU (+3)
10 Marquette (-4)
2 Gonzaga (–)
15 Northern Colorado (–)

East Region (New York City)

Greensboro, NC
1 Duke (#1 overall) (–)
16 St. Francis (PA) (–)/Rider (-1)
8 Illinois (NEW)
9 Houston (–)

Albany, NY
5 Kentucky (+3)
12 Purdue (-3)/VCU (-1)
4 Maryland (-2)
13 Vermont (–)

Albany, NY
6 Iowa (–)
11 USC (–)
3 Seton Hall (+2)
14 Colgate (+1)

Cleveland, OH
7 Creighton (–)
10 Florida (–)
2 West Virginia (+1)
15 Belmont (-1)

South Region (Houston)

Omaha, NE
1 Baylor (#2 overall) (+1)
16 UC Irvine (NEW)
8 Stanford (+3)
9 Saint Mary’s (-2)

Omaha, NE
5 Wichita State (–)
12 Northern Iowa (–)
4 Villanova (+2)
13 Louisiana Tech (–)

Tampa, FL
6 Arkansas (+1)
11 Xavier (-2)
3 Florida State (–)
14 Georgia State (–)

Tampa, FL
7 Penn State (-3)
10 Oklahoma (+1)
2 Auburn (–)
15 William & Mary (NEW)

West Region (Los Angeles)

St. Louis, MO
1 Kansas (#4 overall) (–)
16 Prairie View (–)/Bethune Cookman (–)
8 BYU (–)
9 Rutgers (+2)

Sacramento, CA
5 Ohio State (-1)
12 Yale (–)
4 Louisville (+2)
13 Wright State (+1)

Spokane, WA
6 Wisconsin (+1)
11 Texas Tech (-2)/Georgetown (NEW)
3 Oregon (–)
14 New Mexico State (–)

Sacramento, CA
7 Colorado (-2)
10 Liberty (–)
2 San Diego State (-1)
15 Radford (+1)

Dropped Out:
Virginia (was 8)
NC State (was 12 – last 4 in)
Oklahoma State (was 12 – last 4 in)
College of Charleston (was 15)
UC Santa Barbara (was 16)

Last 4 Byes
Marquette
Virginia Tech
Xavier
USC
Last 4 In
Texas Tech
Georgetown
Purdue
VCU
First 4 Out
NC State
Virginia
TCU
Minnesota
Next 4 Out
Tennessee
Cincinnati
Oklahoma State
Duquesne
Waiting List
Utah
Pittsburgh
Rhode Island
Texas
Utah State
Saint Louis

Multi-Bid Conferences
A10: 2 teams
AAC: 3 teams
ACC: 4 teams
Big 10: 11 teams
Big 12: 5 teams
Big East: 7 teams
Mountain West: 1 teams
Pac 12: 5 teams
SEC: 5 teams
WCC: 3 teams



Top 25 – Week 10

  1. Gonzaga (–) – I’m sure others are going to drop Gonzaga due to a particularly close call Saturday night at home versus Pepperdine, but I’m comfortable leaving them at the top. For one, I don’t want to be too reactionary, and two, the WCC is better this year than it has been in quite some time.
  2. Kansas (+1) – This week, I’m bumping Kansas back up to the #2 spot in my rankings thanks to their performance Saturday against a very good West Virginia team. It’s not a knock against Baylor at all, but a 7 point win against a top 20 team compared to a 15 point win against an unranked team is more impressive to me. Plus, Kansas has proven they can win on the road, while Baylor does still remain untested in true road environments.
  3. Baylor (-1) – Like I said, Baylor is dropping less due to their own performance and more due to Kansas’ big win. They showed some serious defensive chops by stifling Texas to a measly 0.75 points per possession on Saturday.
  4. Duke (–) – Some have asked why I have Duke at 4 behind Baylor and Kansas, and here’s my reasoning – Duke’s wins over Kansas and at Michigan State are as good as any in the country, but beyond that, a win over an inconsistent Georgetown team is their best, and the Stephen F. Austin loss is a big black mark. Baylor’s lone loss is a neutral site match against Washington, and they’ve got wins over Arizona, Villanova, and Butler. Kansas does have the losses to Duke and at Villanova, but wins over BYU, Dayton, Colorado, at Stanford, and now West Virginia, plus a couple solid mid-major wins in UNC Greensboro and East Tennessee State.
  5. Auburn (+3) – The Tigers opened SEC play with a solid win over Mississippi State in their first true road test against a power conference foe. Two winnable games lie ahead this week with Vanderbilt and Georgia coming into town as Auburn continues to keep its undefeated start going.
  6. Butler (+4) – Butler continues to be one of the most underrated teams in the country (at least by some) as they picked up a couple more wins as Big East play started. The Bulldogs gave up a massive 23 point lead to St. John’s, but ultimately recovered to grab a gritty road win, then held Creighton at bay over the weekend. Heading into Sunday’s games, Butler ranked #3 in NET, #2 in SOR, #6 in BPI, and #5 in KenPom, and had more combined Q1/Q2 victories than anyone in the country. This squad isn’t going anywhere.
  7. San Diego State (+4) – The Aztecs picked up one of the biggest victories of their dazzling season over the weekend, taking down their biggest Mountain West competition, Utah State, on the road. While the strength of schedule moving forward won’t be too great, a road win at BYU plus neutral court wins over Creighton, Iowa, and Utah are going to continue to age well for their resume.
  8. Michigan State (+8) – Are the Spartans finally starting to turn into what we thought they could be in the preseason? Michigan State took down both Illinois and a ranked Michigan team down in convincing fashion this week, and have ripped off a 7-game winning streak.
  9. Oregon (-2) – The Ducks climbed into the Top 5 for the first time this year, and suffered a fate that many other Top 5 teams have experienced with a loss to an unranked team. Losing to a good Colorado squad on the road, though, isn’t something to be too ashamed of, and coming out of the difficult mountain road trip isn’t too shabby.
  10. Ohio State (-4) – The magical start for the Buckeyes has started to wear off, but don’t think that losing 3 of their past 5 games means that this still isn’t a legitimate Big 10 contender. Obviously, losing the home game to the Badgers on Friday night was a blow to the conference title hopes, but there’s tons of basketball still to be played and I firmly believe this squad is among the nation’s elite.
  11. Dayton (+3) – Dayton began A-10 play this past week with two road games in Philly, and came away with two victories. Most conference games are going to be trap games for the Flyers this season, so coming out hot with a 2-0 start is a good sign.
  12. Maryland (+3) – Two consecutive road losses at Seton Hall and Penn State followed by an uninspiring effort against Bryant has made some sour on the Terrapins, but I think this is still a good team, though the depth has taken a hit with the loss of the Mitchell brothers. Still, a shellacking of a decent Indiana team over the weekend was a positive sign moving forward. Ohio State comes into town Tuesday night for a massive game.
  13. Florida State (+12) – I had been lower than the consensus on the Noles for some time, but let this be my mea culpa – this team is legit and has a very real chance of winning the ACC if they can outpace Duke. Going into Louisville and leading wire to wire was not a performance I saw coming, but it certainly served as an eye opener.
  14. Louisville (-9) – Speaking of Louisville, I’ve started to sour just a bit on this squad. I do believe this is a good basketball team, but they’ve lost 3 of 5, with each loss being against a good team, and quite honestly, a home win against Michigan is the only notable win on their resume. I think they have the talent to climb back into the top 10 and even top 5, but I need to see more wins against quality opponents.
  15. West Virginia (-3) – The Mountaineers lost their only game this past week, but there’s really nothing to be ashamed about losing in the toughest home court environment in college hoops. I may have been a bit premature jumping them up to #12 this past week, but I believe this team will settle inside the top 25 for the majority of the season.
  16. Wichita State (+1) – The Shockers kicked off conference play this week with a surprisingly close win over East Carolina, then rebounded with a dominating 20 point victory over Ole Miss to wrap up conference play. They’ll take on Memphis on Thursday night for a battle for early AAC supremacy.
  17. Penn State (+3) – Penn State continued its dream start to the season by taking down Iowa in a thrilling win at The Palestra over the weekend. Their next game is Tuesday night at Rutgers – a game that will be a hotly contested affair and will be worth watching, and a game that very few, if anyone, had circled on their calendars before the season.
  18. Memphis (-9) – After kicking off AAC play with a contested but comfortable win over Tulane, the Fighting Penny Hardaways were stunned at home by Georgia over the weekend. The loss did come without the services of DJ Jeffries, and while Georgia did need a buzzer beater to defeat Chaminade in Maui, they might not be all that bad of a team considering Anthony Edwards only shot 4-17 in the win.
  19. Kentucky (-1) – Rather straightforward week for Kentucky, who played and won their lone game against Missouri to open SEC play. A road matchup against a suddenly confident Georgia team awaits them on Tuesday night, and it’ll be interesting to see how the Wildcats handle their first true road environment.
  20. Villanova (-7) – After opening Big East play with a close but controlled victory over Xavier, the Wildcats hit the road and were pretty much dumped on by Marquette. They had several opportunities to get close in the 2nd half but squandered each one, and now a daunting road matchup at a Creighton team that can outshoot anyone awaits.
  21. Virginia (–) – The Cavaliers improved to 3-0 in early ACC play with a convincing win against Virginia Tech on Saturday. Don’t look now, but UVA may just be slowly but surely starting to figure it out on offense, having scored 65 points in each of their last two games. Braxton Key, pun intended, has been the key, averaging 16.5 points on 65% shooting the last two games.
  22. Texas Tech (–) – After knocking off then #1-ranked Louisville, the Red Raiders somewhat sputtered, reeling off 3 uninspiring wins against Southern Miss, UT Rio Grande Valley, and CSU Bakersfield. Then, Big 12 play opened on Saturday, and Texas Tech assaulted Oklahoma State in the 2nd half and won by 35. Jah’mius Ramsey has been awesome since returning from injury, averaging over 17 PPG and shooting over 55% from 3 point territory.
  23. Arizona (–) – After winning the Wooden Legacy, the Wildcats stalled and lost 3 out of 4. Pac 12 play opened this weekend and Arizona quickly put those losing memories behind them, whooping their hated rival Arizona State by 28 points at home. A challenging road trip awaits this week to Oregon and Oregon State.
  24. Michigan (-5) – After running through the Battle 4 Atlantis, Michigan was deemed as the most underrated team in the country and shot into the top 5 in the polls. It seems like that was quite an overreaction, as they have gone 3-4 since then, with a good win over Iowa and then two buy games. 3 of the 4 losses have been on the road, so I’m not writing the Wolverines off by any means, but the injury to Isaiah Livers and loss of floor spacing will be a major challenge for them going forward.
  25. Arkansas (NEW) – I’m a little gunshy to pull the trigger just yet on the Razorbacks, but at the end of the day, you’ve gotta win games, and they’ve been doing a lot of it. Sure, they lost at Western Kentucky, needed a prayer to escape Georgia Tech, and had closer than expected victories against Northern Kentucky, Austin Peay, and Valparaiso, but they’re 12-1 with a defense ranked 10th on KenPom and that’s worth recognizing.

Dropped Out:
Northern Iowa (24) – I was quite impressed by the Panthers’ non-conference performance, taking down Colorado on the road, defeating South Carolina in Cancun, and only dropping a narrow battle against West Virginia in Cancun, but they dropped a dud to start MVC play this week against Illinois State. I definitely can see them being a dark horse 11 or 12 seed in the tournament, but I don’t think they’re at a top 25 level at this point any longer.

Next 5: Colorado, Creighton, Marquette, Iowa, Seton Hall

Bracketology – 1/6

Sunday seed list based on games through Saturday, 1/5.

Italics indicate projected Auto-Bid, number in parentheses indicates change in seeding since last posting.

1 seeds
Butler (-)
Kansas (+1)
Duke (-)
San Diego State (-)
2 seeds
Auburn (-)
Gonzaga (-1)
Baylor (+1)
Maryland (+1)
3 seeds
Oregon (-1)
Michigan State (+1)
West Virginia (-)
Florida State (+1)
4 seeds
Ohio State (-2)
Dayton (+1)
Penn State (+1)
Michigan (-)
5 seeds
Colorado (+3)
Wichita State (+1)
Seton Hall (+2)
Arizona (+1)
6 seeds
Louisville (-3)
Iowa (-2)
Marquette (+1)
Villanova (-1)
7 seeds
Creighton (-)
Wisconsin (NEW)
Arkansas (+2)
Saint Mary’s (-1)
8 seeds
Virginia (+1)
BYU (-)
Kentucky (NEW)
Memphis (-3)
9 seeds
Houston (+2)
Purdue (+2)
Texas Tech (+1)
Xavier (-1)
10 seeds
Florida (-)
Liberty (-3)
LSU (NEW)
Indiana (-4)
11 seeds
Rutgers (NEW)
USC (NEW)
Oklahoma (-)
VCU (NEW)/Stanford (-)
12 seeds
NC State (-3)/Oklahoma State (-2)
East Tennessee State (-)
Yale (-)
Northern Iowa (-)
13 seeds
Louisiana Tech (-)
Akron (NEW)
Vermont (-)
Stephen F. Austin (-)
14 seeds
Wright State (-)
Georgia State (-)
New Mexico State (+1)
Belmont (-)
15 seeds
College of Charleston (NEW)
Northern Colorado (-1)
Colgate (-)
Rider (-)
16 seeds
UC Santa Barbara (NEW)
North Dakota State (NEW)
Radford (-1)/St. Francis (PA) (-)
Prairie View A&M (NEW)/Bethune Cookman (NEW)

Last 4 Byes
Indiana
Rutgers
USC
Oklahoma

Last 4 In
VCU
Stanford
NC State
Oklahoma State

First 4 Out
Minnesota
Utah State
Georgetown
Georgia

Next 4 Out
Illinois
Virginia Tech
St. John’s
Mississippi State

Waiting List
Texas
Furman
Temple
Missouri
SMU
DePaul

Multi-Bid Conferences
AAC: 3 teams
A10: 2 teams
ACC: 5 teams
Big 10: 10 teams
Big 12: 6 teams
Big East: 6 teams
Pac 12: 5 teams
SEC: 5 teams
WCC: 3 teams

Top 25 Poll – Week 9

Don’t have the time to write a summary and detailed reasoning this week, but with so few games played mid-week due to the holiday, it’s just as well.

  1. Gonzaga (–)
  2. Baylor (+2)
  3. Kansas (+2)
  4. Duke (+2)
  5. Louisville (-2)
  6. Ohio State (-4)
  7. Oregon (–)
  8. Auburn (–)
  9. Memphis (–)
  10. Butler (–)
  11. San Diego State (–)
  12. West Virginia (+7)
  13. Villanova (-1)
  14. Dayton (-1)
  15. Maryland (-1)
  16. Michigan State (-1)
  17. Wichita State (-1)
  18. Kentucky (+5)
  19. Michigan (-2)
  20. Penn State (-2)
  21. Virginia (-1)
  22. Texas Tech (-1)
  23. Arizona (-1)
  24. Northern Iowa (–)
  25. Florida State (–)

Dropped Out: None

Next 5: DePaul, Colorado, Creighton, Arkansas, St. John’s

Bracketology – 12/24

It’s that time of year again! Conference play is set to ramp up full-time across all of Division 1 within the next week and a half, and it’s time to start seriously looking at bracketology. For those of you reading this who aren’t familiar with my process, here’s a brief explanation:

My rankings are based on a computer formula I designed that is mostly based on current resume – this is not a projection of where teams will stand midway through March, but rather, my viewpoint of where teams stand at this point in time. Of course, I do include predictive ratings such as KenPom, BPI, and Sagarin, so there is still a little predictive influence, but it’s predominantly resume-based. That’s why you’ll see San Diego State and Butler on the 1 seed line over teams like Kansas and Ohio State, both of whom you could argue for being a clear 1 seed. At this point in time, San Diego State is 5-0 and Quad 1 & Quad 2 opponents, #1 in NET & SOR, and 2-0 against Quad 1A opponents, which is the highest tier of Q1. If I were projecting out to March, I would absolutely place Ohio State on the 1 seed above the Aztecs, as they’ll have many, many more opportunities to earn Q1 victories in the Big 10 compared to the Mountain West. But, for now, San Diego State has a resume that I’m comfortable placing over the Buckeyes. And for those wondering about Butler being on the one seed line, my response is why not? They have more victories against Q1 and Q2 opponents than ANYONE in the country, are ranked in the top 5 of NET and SOR, and in the top 10 of BPI and KenPom. They’re tied with my #1 overall, Duke, with 4 Quad 1 victories as well. Factors that go into my ratings include:

  • NET, KPI (not included today as it hasn’t been released yet), SOR, BPI, KenPom, Sagarin
  • Non-Conference Strength of Schedule (new to the formula this year)
  • Records against each Quadrant (1-4)

Now, here’s the bracket – italics indicate the auto-bid.

Midwest Region (Indianapolis)

St. Louis, MO
1 Butler (#3 overall)
16 St. Francis (PA)/Coppin State
8 Utah State
9 Georgetown

Albany, NY
5 Villanova
12 Yale
4 Michigan
13 Vermont

Cleveland, OH
6 Saint Mary’s
11 Houston
3 Louisville
14 Belmont

St. Louis, MO
7 Marquette
10 Florida
2 Kansas
15 Radford

East Region (New York City)

Greensboro, NC
1 Duke (#1 overall)
16 Hofstra
8 Xavier
9 Arkansas

Sacramento, CA
5 Memphis
12 Washington/Minnesota
4 Iowa
13 Stephen F. Austin

Albany, NY
6 Indiana
11 Stanford
3 West Virginia
14 Wright State

Cleveland, OH
7 Seton Hall
10 Texas Tech
2 Ohio State
15 Rider

West Region (Los Angeles)

Spokane, WA
1 Gonzaga (#2 overall)
16 Oral Roberts/Texas Southern
8 Colorado
9 Virginia

Tampa, FL
5 Penn State
12 East Tennessee State
4 Florida State
13 Louisiana Tech

Greensboro, NC
6 Arizona
11 Tennessee/Oklahoma
3 Maryland
14 Georgia State

Spokane, WA
7 Creighton
10 Oklahoma State
2 Oregon
15 New Mexico State

South Region (Houston)

Sacramento, CA
1 San Diego State (#4 overall)
16 Hawaii
8 BYU
9 NC State

Omaha, NE
5 Dayton
12 Northern Iowa
4 Michigan State
13 Kent State

Omaha, NE
6 Wichita State
11 Purdue
3 Baylor
14 Northern Colorado

Tampa, FL
7 Liberty
10 DePaul
2 Auburn
15 Colgate

Last 4 Byes
DePaul
Houston
Stanford
Purdue
Last 4 In
Tennessee
Oklahoma
Washington
Minnesota
First 4 Out
Kentucky
Temple
Rutgers
USC
Next 4 Out
VCU
Iowa State
Illinois
Wisconsin
Waiting List
UNC
UNC Greensboro
LSU
Texas
St. John’s

Multi-Bid Conferences
AAC: 3 teams
ACC: 5 teams
Big 10: 9 teams
Big 12: 6 teams
Big East: 8 teams
Mountain West: 2 teams
Pac 12: 5 teams
SEC: 4 teams
WCC: 3 teams