Bracketology – 2/27

Thanks for checking in! Here is what my bracket looks like after games through February 26th. My Bracketology uses each piece of information on the NCAA Team Sheets – the 6 sets of rankings (NET, KPI, BPI SOR, BPI, KenPom, and Sagarin), as well as Q1A, Q1 Overall, Q2, Q3, and Q4 records. Autobids are represented by italics.

In & Out since last update: Utah State is in, Arizona State is out

As I mentioned in my previous post, my rankings use a mathematical model to try and project the Selection Committee’s thought process. Given the inherent flaws of grouping wins into the 4 quadrants with arbitrary cutoffs, this system is not perfect. I’m hoping to develop a more properly scaled system over the coming months that removes some of those flaws, but for now, this is what I project.

East Region (Washington, D.C.)

Columbia, SC
1 Virginia (#1 Overall)
16 Iona/Norfolk State
8 Baylor
9 Ole Miss

Hartford, CT
5 Wisconsin
12 Belmont
4 Marquette
13 UC Irvine

Hartford, CT
6 Buffalo
11 Utah State
3 Purdue
14 Old Dominion

Des Moines, IA
7 Louisville
10 Florida
2 Kansas
15 Radford

South Region (Louisville)

Columbia, SC
1 Duke (#2 Overall)
16 Sam Houston State
8 Wofford
9 Ohio State

Salt Lake City, UT
5 Mississippi State
12 Clemson/Nebraska
4 Texas Tech
13 New Mexico State

Tulsa, OK
6 Nevada
11 TCU
3 LSU
14 Texas State

Des Moines, IA
7 Cincinnati
10 Texas
2 Michigan
15 Bucknell

Midwest Region (Kansas City)

Columbus, OH
1 Kentucky (#3 Overall)
16 Wright State
8 Oklahoma
9 NC State

San Jose, CA
5 Florida State
12 Lipscomb
4 Maryland
13 Vermont

Tulsa, OK
6 Kansas State
11 Alabama
3 Houston
14 South Dakota State

Jacksonville, FL
7 Auburn
10 St. John’s
2 North Carolina
15 Drake

West Region (Anaheim, CA)

Columbus, OH
1 Michigan State (#4 Overall)
16 Prairie View A&M/St. Francis PA
8 Washington
9 Syracuse

San Jose, CA
5 Iowa State
12 Minnesota/Seton Hall
4 Virginia Tech
13 Yale

Jacksonville, FL
6 Villanova
11 UCF
3 Tennessee
14 Hofstra

Salt Lake City, UT
7 Iowa
10 VCU
2 Gonzaga
15 Montana

Last 4 Byes
UCF
TCU
Alabama
Utah State
Last 4 In
Clemson
Nebraska
Minnesota
Seton Hall
First 4 Out
Saint Mary’s
Arizona State
Creighton
Indiana
Next 4 Out
Temple
Butler
San Francisco
Toledo

Multi-Bid Conferences
ACC – 9 teams
Big 10 – 9 teams
Big 12 – 8 teams
SEC – 8 teams
Big East – 4 teams
AAC – 3 teams
MWC – 2 teams

Bracketology – 2/22

Thanks for checking in! Below is my project of what the bracket would look like through games on Thursday, February 21st. My Bracketology uses each piece of information on the NCAA Team Sheets – the 6 sets of rankings (NET, KPI, BPI SOR, BPI, KenPom, and Sagarin), as well as Q1A, Q1 Overall, Q2, Q3, and Q4 records. Autobids are represented by italics.

EDIT: Should have noted when I initially posted that this a formula-based ranking system. My goal is to develop a model that mimics the selection committee’s thought process as closely as possible, so this is a work-in-progress. Based on feedback I’ve gotten, I have some ideas on where my weaknesses lie and where I can tweak for the next release.

East Region (Washington, D.C.)

Columbia, SC
1 Duke (#1 Overall)
16 Rider/St. Francis PA
8 Wofford
9 Texas

Hartford, CT
5 Maryland
12 Belmont
4 LSU
13 Liberty

Hartford, CT
6 Virginia Tech
11 Minnesota
3 Marquette
14 Old Dominion

Columbus, OH
7 Buffalo
10 St. John’s
2 Michigan State
15 Northern Kentucky

South Region (Louisville)

Columbia, SC
1 Virginia (#2 Overall)
16 Prairie View A&M/Norfolk State
8 Oklahoma
9 Ole Miss

Salt Lake City, UT
5 Mississippi State
12 New Mexico State
4 Texas Tech
13 Vermont

Tulsa, OK
6 Iowa State
11 Seton Hall
3 Purdue
14 Georgia State

Jacksonville, FL
7 Cincinnati
10 NC State
2 Tennessee
15 Drake

Midwest Region (Kansas City)

Columbus, OH
1 Michigan (#3 Overall)
16 Lehigh
8 Washington
9 Syracuse

San Jose, CA
5 Kansas State
12 Arizona State/Nebraska
4 Florida State
13 Yale

Tulsa, OK
6 Louisville
11 TCU
3 Houston
14 South Dakota State

Des Moines, IA
7 Iowa
10 Florida
2 Kansas
15 Montana

West Region (Anaheim, CA)

Des Moines, IA
1 Kentucky (#4 Overall)
16 Sam Houston State
8 Baylor
9 Ohio State

San Jose, CA
5 Villanova
12 Clemson/Alabama
4 Wisconsin
13 Hofstra

Salt Lake City, UT
6 Nevada
11 UCF
3 Gonzaga
14 UC Irvine

Jacksonville, FL
7 Auburn
10 VCU
2 North Carolina
15 Radford

Last 4 Byes
TCU
Seton Hall
Minnesota
UCF
Last 4 In
Arizona State
Nebraska
Clemson
Alabama
First 4 Out
Butler
Utah State
Temple
Creighton
Next 4 Out
Indiana
San Francisco
Saint Mary’s
Lipscomb

Multi-Bid Conferences
ACC – 9 teams
Big 10 – 9 teams
Big 12 – 8 teams
SEC – 8 teams
Big East – 4 teams
AAC – 3 teams
Pac 12 – 2 teams