| 1 seeds: Virginia, Duke, Michigan State, UNC 2 seeds: Michigan, Tennessee, Kentucky, Gonzaga 3 seeds: Houston, Texas Tech, Kansas, LSU 4 seeds: Florida State, Purdue, Auburn, Wisconsin 5 seeds: Kansas State, Virginia Tech, Villanova, Iowa State 6 seeds: Buffalo, Marquette, Mississippi State, Cincinnati 7 seeds: Wofford, Nevada, Maryland, Louisville 8 seeds: Oklahoma, Iowa, UCF, Utah State 9 seeds: NC State, Washington, VCU, Florida 10 seeds: Syracuse, Clemson, Seton Hall, Baylor 11 seeds: Minnesota, Saint Mary’s, TCU*, Ole Miss*, Ohio State*, Indiana* 12 seeds: Oregon, New Mexico State, Murray State, UC Irvine 13 seeds: Liberty, Vermont, Northeastern, Yale 14 seeds: Old Dominion, Georgia State, Saint Louis, Northern Kentucky 15 seeds: Montana, Colgate, Abilene Christian, Gardner Webb 16 seeds: Bradley, Prairie View A&M, North Dakota State, Fairleigh Dickinson, Iona, North Carolina Central First 4 Out: Belmont, Creighton, Arizona State, Temple Next 4 Out: Alabama, St. John’s, Lipscomb, Furman |
Month: March 2019
Selection Sunday Bracketology
This blog will be updated with the conclusion of each game this afternoon. At this point, the bubble is pretty much set, and the only changes will be auto-bids for one bid leagues/the A-10, and more importantly, who gets the last two one seeds. Duke and UVA are locks with UVA holding the #1 overall seed. If Tennessee wins, they get a one seed. If Michigan State wins, they also get a one seed. If one of those two loses, UNC gets a one seed. If both lose, UNC and Michigan get one seeds. I don’t believe Gonzaga has the resume when they will at best, 40% as many Q1 victories as any other potential one seeds, with the 5th highest average computer metric of all teams.
UPDATE #1 – Yale wins the autobid over Harvard for the Ivy and slide into a 13 seed, bumping Old Dominion to the 14 line.
UPDATE #2 – Saint Louis wins the A10 auto bid and moves to the 14 line, dropping Montana to a 15. Auburn wins the SEC auto bid and moves past Wisconsin on the true seed list, while Tennessee drops behind Michigan on the true seed list.
UPDATE #3 – Cincinnati wins the AAC Tournament and scoots past Wofford for a 6 seed. Houston stays in the same place. Will post a new blog with my final projection after the Big 10 Tournament.
1 seeds: Virginia, Duke, Michigan State, UNC
2 seeds: Michigan, Tennessee, Kentucky, Gonzaga
3 seeds: Houston, Texas Tech, Kansas, LSU
4 seeds: Florida State, Purdue, Auburn, Wisconsin
5 seeds: Kansas State, Virginia Tech, Villanova, Iowa State
6 seeds: Buffalo, Marquette, Mississippi State, Cincinnati
7 seeds: Wofford, Nevada, Maryland, Louisville
8 seeds: Oklahoma, Iowa, UCF, Utah State
9 seeds: NC State, Washington, VCU, Florida
10 seeds: Syracuse, Clemson, Seton Hall, Baylor
11 seeds: Minnesota, Saint Mary’s, TCU*, Ole Miss*, Ohio State*, Indiana*
12 seeds: Oregon, New Mexico State, Murray State, UC Irvine
13 seeds: Liberty, Vermont, Northeastern, Yale
14 seeds: Old Dominion, Georgia State, Saint Louis, Northern Kentucky
15 seeds: Montana, Colgate, Abilene Christian, Gardner Webb
16 seeds: Bradley, Prairie View A&M, North Dakota State, Fairleigh Dickinson, Iona, North Carolina Central
First 4 Out: Belmont, Creighton, Arizona State, Temple
Next 4 Out: Alabama, St. John’s, Lipscomb, Furman
Bracketology – 3/16
VCU falls, opening the door for a bid stealer in the A10. Davidson temporarily takes the projected auto bid and Nebraska drops out of the field with their 16th loss – eliminated from consideration due to no precedence of a 16 loss team being awarded an at-large bid. Belmont hangs onto the last at-large spot.
1 seeds: Virginia, Duke, UNC, Kentucky
2 seeds: Michigan State, Michigan, Tennessee, Gonzaga
3 seeds: Houston, Kansas, Texas Tech, LSU
4 seeds: Florida State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Kansas State
5 seeds: Virginia Tech, Auburn, Villanova, Marquette
6 seeds: Mississippi State, Buffalo, Iowa State, Wofford
7 seeds: Nevada, Maryland, Cincinnati, Louisville
8 seeds: Oklahoma, Washington, UCF, Iowa
9 seeds: NC State, Florida, Utah State, VCU
10 seeds: Syracuse, Minnesota, Clemson, Seton Hall
11 seeds: Baylor, Saint Mary’s, TCU, Ole Miss*, Ohio State*
12 seeds: Indiana*, Belmont*, Murray State, New Mexico State, Davidson
13 seeds: Liberty, UC Irvine, Vermont, Northeastern
14 seeds: Old Dominion, Georgia State, Northern Kentucky, Harvard
15 seeds: Montana, Colgate, Gardner Webb, Bradley
16 seeds: Abilene Christian, North Dakota State, Prairie View A&M, Fairleigh Dickinson, Iona, Norfolk State
First 4 Out: Creighton, Arizona State, Oregon, Temple
Next 4 Out: Alabama, St. John’s, Furman, Toledo
Bracketology – 3/15
Here’s my update for today, doing a full bracket this morning instead of just a seed list. Texas, by virtue of being .500, is eliminated. Metrics and resume are stronger than some at-large teams, but until the Selection Committee selects a team at .500 or below, I will not give them any consideration.
Other tidbits – Minnesota and Seton Hall rise up to 11 seeds and escape the First Four. Indiana’s loss to Ohio State drops them into the Last 4 In. Creighton’s loss drops them out of the field and Nebraska’s win over Maryland puts them in. Belmont slides into the final at-large spot by virtue of Texas’ .500 record.
| East Region (Washington, D.C.) | South Region (Louisville, KY) |
| Columbia, SC 1 Virginia (#1 Overall) 16 Prairie View/Fairleigh Dickinson 8 Oklahoma 9 Utah State | Columbia, SC 1 North Carolina 16 Sam Houston State 8 UCF 9 Baylor |
| San Jose, CA 5 Marquette 12 New Mexico State 4 Wisconsin 13 Vermont | San Jose, CA 5 Mississippi State 12 Indiana/Belmont 4 Kansas State 13 Northeastern |
| Des Moines, IA 6 Buffalo 11 Minnesota 3 Kansas 14 Northern Kentucky | Tulsa, OK 6 Wofford 11 Seton Hall 3 Houston 14 Georgia State |
| Jacksonville, FL 7 Maryland 10 Clemson 2 Tennessee 15 Gardner Webb | Columbus, OH 7 Cincinnati 10 Syracuse 2 Michigan State 15 Colgate |
| West Region (Anaheim, CA) | Midwest Region (Kansas City, MO) |
| Hartford, CT 1 Duke 16 Iona/Norfolk State 8 VCU 9 Washington | Columbus, OH 1 Kentucky 16 North Dakota State 8 Iowa 9 NC State |
| Hartford, CT 5 Virginia Tech 12 Murray State 4 Purdue 13 UC Irvine | Salt Lake City, UT 5 Auburn 12 Ohio State/Nebraska 4 Florida State 13 Liberty |
| Jacksonville, FL 6 Villanova 11 TCU 3 LSU 14 Old Dominion | Tulsa, OK 6 Nevada 11 Ole Miss 3 Texas Tech 14 Harvard |
| Salt Lake City, UT 7 Louisville 10 Florida 2 Gonzaga 15 Montana | Des Moines, IA 7 Iowa State 10 Saint Mary’s 2 Michigan 15 Bradley |
Last 4 Byes
Minnesota
Seton Hall
TCU
Ole Miss
Last 4 In
Ohio State
Nebraska
Indiana
Belmont
First 4 Out
Arizona State
Temple
Creighton
Alabama
Next 4 Out
Oregon
St. John’s
Furman
Toledo
Multi-Bid Conferences
Big 10 – 10 teams
ACC – 9 teams
Big 12 – 7 teams
SEC – 7 teams
AAC – 3 teams
Big East – 3 teams
Mountain West – 2 teams
Ohio Valley – 2 teams
West Coast – 2 teams
Bracketology 3/14
Colgate clinches the auto-bid. This seed list includes games up to the start of today’s action.
1 seeds: Virginia, UNC, Duke, Kentucky
2 seeds: Michigan State, Michigan, Tennessee, Gonzaga
3 seeds: Texas Tech, Houston, LSU, Kansas
4 seeds: Purdue, Wisconsin, Florida State, Virginia Tech
5 seeds: Kansas State, Auburn, Villanova, Maryland
6 seeds: Nevada, Marquette, Mississippi State, Buffalo
7 seeds: Wofford, Louisville, Cincinnati, Iowa State
8 seeds: UCF, VCU, NC State, Oklahoma
9 seeds: Iowa, Baylor, Washington, Syracuse
10 seeds: Clemson, Texas, Ole Miss, Utah State
11 seeds: TCU, Saint Mary’s, Florida, Indiana
12 seeds: Minnesota*, Seton Hall*, Creighton*, Ohio State*, Murray State, New Mexico State
13 seeds: Liberty, UC Irvine, Vermont, Northeastern
14 seeds: Old Dominion, Georgia State, Northern Kentucky, Harvard
15 seeds: Montana, Colgate, Gardner-Webb, Bradley
16 seeds: Sam Houston State, North Dakota State, Prairie View A&M, Fairleigh Dickinson, Iona, Norfolk State
First 4 Out: Nebraska, Belmont, Temple, Arizona State
Next 4 Out: St. John’s, Toledo, Oregon, Alabama
Bracketology – 3/13
Saint Mary’s stole the show last night with the stunning upset of Gonzaga, locking them in. I had just placed them onto the right side of the bubble yesterday afternoon, so no bid thief here, but bubble teams across the country are much more nervous now.
Here is today’s seedings – I went through and did a fresh scrub through the entire field, so some teams that may have been out of action yesterday may have flipped spots.
1 seeds: Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Kentucky
2 seeds: Michigan State, Michigan, Tennessee, Gonzaga
3 seeds: Texas Tech, Houston, LSU, Kansas
4 seeds: Purdue, Wisconsin, Florida State, Virginia Tech
5 seeds: Kansas State, Auburn, Villanova, Maryland
6 seeds: Nevada, Marquette, Mississippi State, Buffalo
7 seeds: Wofford, Cincinnati, Louisville, Iowa State
8 seeds: UCF, Oklahoma, VCU, NC State
9 seeds: Iowa, Baylor, Washington, Clemson
10 seeds: Texas, Syracuse, Ole Miss, Utah State
11 seeds: Saint Mary’s, Florida, TCU, Indiana
12 seeds: Minnesota*, Seton Hall*, Creighton*, Ohio State*, Murray State, New Mexico State
13 seeds: Liberty, UC Irvine, Vermont, Northeastern
14 seeds: Old Dominion, Georgia State, Northern Kentucky, Harvard
15 seeds: Montana, Colgate, Gardner Webb, Bradley
16 seeds: Sam Houston State, North Dakota State, Prairie View A&M, Fairleigh Dickinson, Iona, Norfolk State
First 4 Out: Belmont, Temple, Nebraska, Arizona State
Next 4 Out: St. John’s, Toledo, Alabama, Oregon
Bracketology – 3/12
Not a whole of action last night as Iona and Wofford held true and clinched the auto bids. Saint Mary’s has temporarily moved into the at-large field over Temple thanks to their computer metrics, but all it would take for Temple to jump back in is a SMC loss to Gonzaga plus a single win in the AAC Tournament, without considering how SMC’s metrics look after tonight – which, based on how they have previously fared against Gonzaga, may take a hit.
1 seeds: Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Kentucky
2 seeds: Michigan State, Michigan, Tennessee, Gonzaga
3 seeds: Texas Tech, Houston, LSU, Kansas
4 seeds: Purdue, Wisconsin, Florida State, Kansas State
5 seeds: Virginia Tech, Auburn, Villanova, Marquette
6 seeds: Maryland, Nevada, Mississippi State, Buffalo
7 seeds: Wofford, Cincinnati, Iowa State, Louisville
8 seeds: UCF, Oklahoma, VCU, Iowa
9 seeds: NC State, Baylor, Washington, Clemson
10 seeds: Texas, Ole Miss, Syracuse, Utah State
11 seeds: TCU, Florida, Indiana, Minnesota
12 seeds: Seton Hall*, Creighton*, Ohio State*, Saint Mary’s*, Murray State, New Mexico State
13 seeds: Liberty, UC Irvine, Vermont, Hofstra
14 seeds: Georgia State, Old Dominion, Harvard, Montana
15 seeds: Colgate, Wright State, Omaha, Gardner-Webb
16 seeds: Bradley, Sam Houston State, Prairie View A&M, Iona, St. Francis PA, Norfolk State
First 4 Out: Temple, Belmont, Arizona State, Nebraska
Next 4 Out: St. John’s, Toledo, Alabama, Oregon
Bracketology – 3/11
No full bracket today, just a seed line update factoring in yesterday’s games. *designates last 4 in
1 seeds: Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Kentucky
2 seeds: Michigan State, Michigan, Tennessee, Gonzaga
3 seeds: Texas Tech, Houston, LSU, Kansas
4 seeds: Purdue, Wisconsin, Florida State, Kansas State
5 seeds: Virginia Tech, Auburn, Villanova, Marquette
6 seeds: Maryland, Nevada, Mississippi State, Buffalo
7 seeds: Wofford, Cincinnati, Iowa State, Louisville
8 seeds: UCF, Oklahoma, VCU, Iowa
9 seeds: NC State, Baylor, Washington, Clemson
10 seeds: Texas, Ole Miss, Syracuse, Utah State
11 seeds: TCU, Florida, Indiana, Minnesota
12 seeds: Seton Hall*, Creighton*, Ohio State*, Temple*, Murray State, New Mexico State
13 seeds: Liberty, UC Irvine, Vermont, Hofstra
14 seeds: Old Dominion, Georgia State, Harvard, Montana
15 seeds: Colgate, Wright State, Nebraska Omaha, Gardner-Webb
16 seeds: Bradley, Sam Houston State, Prairie View A&M, Iona, St. Francis PA, Norfolk State
First 4 Out: Belmont, Arizona State, Nebraska, Saint Mary’s
Next 4 Out: St. John’s, Toledo, Alabama, Oregon
Bracketology – 3/10
Thanks for checking in! Here is what my bracket looks like after games through March 9th. My Bracketology uses each piece of information on the NCAA Team Sheets – the 6 sets of rankings (NET, KPI, BPI SOR, BPI, KenPom, and Sagarin), as well as Q1A, Q1 Overall, Q2, Q3, and Q4 records. Autobids are represented by italics.
In & Out since last update: Indiana, Creighton, and Temple are in, and St. John’s, Alabama, and Nebraska are out.
As I mentioned in my previous post, my rankings use a mathematical model to try and project the Selection Committee’s thought process. Given the inherent flaws of grouping wins into the 4 quadrants with arbitrary cutoffs, this system is not perfect. I’m hoping to develop a more properly scaled system over the coming months that removes some of those flaws, but for now, this is what I project.
| East Region (Washington, D.C.) | South Region (Louisville, KY) |
| Columbia, SC 1 Virginia (#1 Overall) 16 Prarie View A&M/Iona 8 VCU 9 Washington | Columbia, SC 1 North Carolina 16 Sam Houston State 8 UCF 9 Baylor |
| San Jose, CA 5 Villanova 12 New Mexico State 4 Wisconsin 13 Vermont | San Jose, CA 5 Marquette 12 Murray State 4 Kansas State 13 UC Irvine |
| Jacksonville, FL 6 Maryland 11 Florida 3 Houston 14 Georgia State | Tulsa, OK 6 Nevada 11 TCU 3 LSU 14 Old Dominion |
| Jacksonville, FL 7 Wofford 10 Clemson 2 Tennessee 15 Omaha | Columbus, OH 7 Cincinnati 10 Ole Miss 2 Michigan State 15 Colgate |
| West Region (Anaheim, CA) | Midwest Region (Kansas City, MO) |
| Hartford, CT 1 Duke 16 St. Francis (PA)/Norfolk State 8 Iowa 9 Texas | Columbus, OH 1 Kentucky 16 Bradley 8 Oklahoma 9 NC State |
| Hartford, CT 5 Virginia Tech 12 Creighton/Temple 4 Purdue 13 Lipscomb | Salt Lake City, UT 5 Auburn 12 Indiana/Seton Hall 4 Florida State 13 Hofstra |
| Des Moines, IA 6 Buffalo 11 Minnesota 3 Kansas 14 Harvard | Tulsa, OK 6 Mississippi State 11 Ohio State 3 Texas Tech 14 Radford |
| Salt Lake City, UT 7 Louisville 10 Utah State 2 Gonzaga 15 Montana | Des Moines, IA 7 Iowa State 10 Syracuse 2 Michigan 15 Wright State |
Last 4 Byes
TCU
Florida
Minnesota
Ohio State
Last 4 In
Indiana
Seton Hall
Creighton
Temple
First 4 Out
Belmont
Arizona State
Saint Mary’s
Nebraska
Next 4 Out
St. John’s
Toledo
Alabama
Furman
Multi-Bid Conferences
ACC – 9 teams
Big 10 – 9 teams
Big 12 – 8 teams
SEC – 7 teams
AAC – 4 teams
Big East – 4 teams
Mountain West – 2 teams
Bracketology Busters 